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The session was to be practical: to help clients understand what has changed, what remains uncertain, and where we believe investors should consider focussing their attention over the next 12 months.

We have recorded a 20-minute video with a summary of the session for your viewing.

In our Client Seminar Series we covered the following themes:

Around the world in 30 seconds

We began with the major global developments influencing markets — including renewed Middle East tensions, oil and food price pressures, US–China trade and critical minerals, AI-driven energy demand, data centre growth, and the ongoing pressure on inflation and interest rates.
The key message was that markets are no longer being driven by one simple story. Geopolitics, energy security, technology infrastructure, fiscal policy and inflation are now deeply connected.

A return to capital intensity

One of our major themes was the market’s shift away from the capital-light winners of the 2000–2020 period and back toward businesses and sectors with scarce, durable, hard-to-replace assets. Here we discussed how the next decade may reward companies linked to infrastructure, energy, defence, data centres, grid replacement, critical minerals and industrial capacity. In simple terms, markets appear to be placing a greater premium on the assets required to power the real economy.

Australia’s position – between pressure and opportunity

Australia remains relatively well placed compared with many countries, but several pressures are building higher government spending, weaker business investment, rising labour costs, low productivity growth, and a growing need to invest in infrastructure, energy, housing and productive capacity.
The conclusion was not that Australia should stop spending. Rather, the challenge is to spend better — directing capital toward investments that improve future productivity, competitiveness and living standards.

Inflation and policy

Here we covered the key levers available to policymakers: interest rates, tax policy, and government spending. This matters because inflation changes the way portfolios need to be built. Real returns, diversification, income quality and asset selection become more important when the cost of capital is no longer near zero.

Wealth planning – control the controllables

A large part of the session focused on the practical planning issues clients are asking about most. Here we discussed the changes to superannuation, Division 296, contribution caps, CGT reform, discretionary trusts, structuring, estate planning and the broader shift toward objectives-based advice.

The key takeaway was that tax should not be the only focus. The more important question is control — ensuring that structures remain flexible, fit for purpose, and aligned to each client’s stage of life, asset mix, income needs and succession objectives.

The overall message to all clients is simple

1. The world is becoming more complex, more capital intensive and more policy driven.
2. Investors should consider focusing less on every headline and more on building portfolios and structures that can adapt.
3. Stellan’s portfolio management process remains intact and is dynamic enough to adjust to changing outside conditions.

Please reach out if you would like to discuss how any of these themes apply to your own portfolio.

Disclaimer: Stellan Capital Pty Ltd (ABN 74 633 599 130) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR) of Stellan Capital Group Pty Ltd (AFSL 416354). Unless expressly indicated otherwise in this email, this email (including any attachments) is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice as it does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs. You should consider whether the information is suitable for your circumstances and where uncertain seek further professional advice. This email and attachments are intended solely for the intended addressee(s) and may contain confidential information. If you have received this email and are not the intended addressee(s), please notify the sender immediately by email and delete this email from your system. You should not disseminate, distribute or copy this email if you are not the intended recipient(s). This communication is based on information from sources believed to be reliable at the time of its preparation. However, despite our best efforts, no guarantee can be given that all information is accurate, reliable, and complete. Any opinions expressed in this email are subject to change without notice and Stellan Capital Pty Ltd is not under any obligation to notify you of changes or updates to these opinions. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information.

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David Leon joined ausbiz  to unpack why the recent market rebound may be masking a softer Australian economic outlook. While global equities have recovered quickly, led by stronger US market performance, David noted that Australia continues to face a more challenging backdrop. Sticky inflation, limited scope for meaningful rate cuts, a weaker Australian dollar and growing pressure from data centre energy demand are all adding complexity to the outlook. His key message was that investors should remain invested, but stay disciplined, selective and mindful of the risks beneath the surface.

The post Why the markets rebounded so quickly after Iran appeared first on Stellan Capital.

Jim DeCarlo joined ausbiz to discuss the changing shape of wealth management and what it means for investors. The conversation focused on the shift away from product-led advice and towards more integrated, team-based models that bring together investment management, financial planning and long-term family strategy. Jim also discussed the importance of building portfolios with purpose, particularly in an environment where clients are looking for clarity, discipline and long-term growth rather than short-term market noise.

The post Why high net worth clients are seeking new advisers appeared first on Stellan Capital.

DeCarlo’s own career gives that argument weight. He entered financial services in 1990, in the early master-trust era, helped build Asgard, later worked on MLC’s MasterKey, and spent 12 years in the US before returning to Australia. After a year out, during which he wrote Honk, a treatise on leadership, he stepped back into the industry with fresh perspective.

For DeCarlo, integrity is the non-negotiable. It is the quality that holds in rough periods, not just strong ones. In advice, that matters. Firms can talk about growth, capability and client outcomes, but none of it lands if staff and clients doubt the motives behind the message.

The right forest

DeCarlo is careful to separate leadership from management, and he does it with a line advisers will remember. “Management is making sure everybody has enough water and the saws are sharpened and we’re managing our time management to cut down the forest quickly enough,” he says.

Leadership, by contrast, is more strategic and far less procedural. “Leadership is knowing we’re even in the right forest and whether we should be even cutting wood at all.”

It is a useful distinction for advice businesses. Many firms are operationally busy but strategically thin. They are running hard, serving clients, handling compliance and managing workflows. But not always stepping back to test whether the business is still pointed in the right direction.

That is where DeCarlo’s framing bites. Good management keeps the machine moving. Great leadership asks whether the machine is built for the right purpose in the first place.

Purpose before people

DeCarlo’s broader point is that leadership must provide direction and structure at the same time. “So, leadership is both vision,” he says. “And it triangulates around vision and then processes, right?”

That sequence matters. Vision without process is rhetoric. Process without vision is bureaucracy. For DeCarlo, the task of leadership is to connect the two in a way people can actually act on.

“You’ve got to be able to take people down a particular path,” he says, “but they got to have an understanding what their role is in that function.”

That idea aligns neatly with his wider framework for great businesses: purpose, process and people. In practice, too many firms still lean too heavily on personalities, products or pricing. Those businesses can grow for a while, but they rarely scale cleanly or endure pressure well. A stronger model starts with purpose, builds the right processes around it and then empowers people to execute with clarity.

For advisers, it is a timely reminder. Leadership is not just culture, charisma or intent. It is the ability to define direction, build structure and bring people with you. In a more demanding advice market, that combination may prove the real point of difference.

Source: Inside Adviser – https://insideadviser.com.au/

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On the back of eye-watering record valuations by our major banks, we thought we’d write a note about why their success is exactly what makes Australia a tough place to start and scale a business. The USA might be a hotbed of negative news right now but there’s still much we can take away from America where entrepreneurship is treated not as a hobby, but a national growth engine.

What’s Wrong with This Picture?

Australia’s corporate landscape hasn’t changed much in over 15 years. Big banks, miners, and supermarkets still dominate market capitalisation. Compare that to the U.S., where companies like Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla have redefined entire industries and only recently joined the top of the S&P 500 within the last decade.

New ideas in Australia struggle to break through, not because we don’t have tons of them but because the capital and scale required to do so are harder to access. That’s not just a missed business opportunity, it’s a missed economic one.

Look at the Top 20 listed companies in the ASX vs the S&P 500, that held their rank in 2010 into 2025. Over 15 years, in Australia many of our largest companies are the same names.

In contrast, the U.S. has seen major turnover at the top which has been driven by companies that weren’t household names just a decade ago.

Banks Prefer Bricks to Business

Australia’s financial system is dominated by residential property lending. It’s not just a bias—it’s a defining feature.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has over $665 billion in home loans, but just $266 billion in business loans. That’s a 2.5-to-1 tilt toward houses over ideas. In contrast, U.S. banks and venture capital markets routinely back start-ups, even with unproven models, because the system is designed to take risk in pursuit of innovation.

When capital is concentrated in low-risk, low-productivity assets like housing, the economy misses the compounding benefits that come from business creation and reinvestment.

The charts below illustrate the disparity between owner-occupied home loans and business lending across the Big Four banks as of April 2025.

No Home? No Loan.

In Australia, collateral means real estate. Most banks won’t lend to a new business unless the founders can secure the loan against their home, something younger entrepreneurs increasingly don’t have.

In the U.S., business loans and early-stage capital are more often tied to business plans, cash flow forecasts, and growth potential. Here, your dream café, app, or clean-tech start-up still has to be backed by a house in the suburbs. It’s a system that rewards the already-established, not the emerging.

Household Debt Is a Growth Handbrake

Australia has some of the highest household debt levels in the world, driven largely by property prices. That debt forces many families into dual-income dependency just to meet the mortgage.

With little financial slack and even less time, many would-be founders shelve business plans—not because they lack drive, but because the cost of failure is simply too high. When the system forces you to choose between stability and creativity, most people understandably choose stability.

Government! Get the Memo?

Australia’s tax settings, industrial laws, and regulatory complexity are weighted toward passive wealth (property) rather than active wealth creation (business).

While the U.S. tax system rewards R&D spending, risk-taking, and reinvestment into growth, Australia still relies heavily on property-related incentives like negative gearing. As a result, innovation is stifled not by a lack of talent but by a lack of breathing room.

Why It Matters – And What We Can Do

This isn’t about becoming America (please no!). But the contrast shows what happens when an economy backs entrepreneurs with systems, incentives, and capital. The U.S. doesn’t just tolerate risk; it underwrites it.

In Australia, there’s enormous potential waiting to be unlocked, especially as intergenerational wealth shifts and younger Australians begin to think beyond property.

What’s needed now is a structural shift:

• Smarter tax settings that reward reinvestment into business
• More flexible lending standards for early-stage ventures
• A cultural (and policy) focus on innovation, not just stability

Amazon recently announced A$20 billion commitment to expand and operate data centre infrastructure in Australia making it the largest publicly disclosed tech investment in the country’s history. It aligns with the government’s ambitions around AI and productivity and may well be an early sign of broader momentum.

We hope the next biggest investors in Australia…will be Australian and that this investment is just part of a larger trend, which could mark a meaningful shift toward a more innovation-driven economy.

Entrepreneurship shouldn’t be a luxury reserved for the already established, it should be an accessible path for anyone with a vision and a plan.

At Stellan, we believe the best investments are in people and ideas that move the country forward, because innovation is not just an opportunity – it’s a responsibility.

The post Being Entrepreneurial in Australia appeared first on Stellan Capital.

With an estimated $40 billion being gifted to children over the course of a year (CoreLogic Report – Bank of Mum and Dad Report, 2023), this “bank” is making waves. Most of this support is heading straight into the property market—because who else is going to help your kids afford a house in today’s market? After that, it’s all about contributing to the grandkids’ education (because, let’s be honest, private school fees aren’t getting any cheaper). 

But whether it’s for a first home, a little boost for education, or just making sure the grandkids have the fanciest lunchboxes in school, understanding how to structure this financial support can make all the difference. A little planning can help keep things crystal clear and avoid those awkward family dinners where everyone wonders why Billy got more than Susie! 

Structuring financial support

When you’re the family’s financial superhero, it’s essential to put on your cape with a plan in mind:

1. Keep it even: We all love our kids equally, right? (Or at least we try our best!) But let’s face it—each child is different. They have unique incomes, partners, and a variety of tiny humans running around. While it might seem logical to help out the one who seems to need it the most, this can sometimes stir up more drama than a reality TV show. Try to keep things even and timely—your future self will thank you at the family BBQ.
2. Define the purpose: Is this cash for a new home, education, or that “essential” gap year in Europe? (We know it’s educational!) Clearly outlining the purpose ensures the funds are used as intended. Plus, it gives you the perfect excuse to ask, “So, how’s that degree coming along?” at every family gathering.
3. Decide on the form of support: This is where things get interesting—will it be a gift or a loan? Each comes with its own perks and quirks:
   • Gift: Think of it as the ultimate no-strings-attached present. But beware, while it might warm your heart to give with no expectations, once the gift is out of your hands, it’s fair game in any future financial mishaps. It’s like sending your kid out into the world with an open umbrella—you hope for sunshine, but you’re ready for a storm!
   • Loan: Ah, the “gift” with strings attached. This one comes with terms—repayment schedules, maybe some (low) interest, and a sense of protection against those pesky life surprises. Plus, you retain the ultimate trump card—the ability to recall the loan or redistribute it through your estate. Remember, it’s all about keeping things fair, even if it means a little more paperwork.
4. Create a formal agreement: Time to get serious (but not too serious!). Documenting the terms of support is a must:
   • Amount provided: How much are we talking here? Enough for a deposit or just covering that scary dentist bill?
   • Repayment terms: Is there a repayment plan? Or are you going with the ever-popular “pay me back when you can” method?
   • Conditions or expectations: Will there be interest? Maybe a repayment schedule? Or just a friendly reminder that, yes, Mum and Dad are amazing.

Purchasing property for family

Now, if you’re thinking about becoming a landlord to your own children, that’s a whole other game. Owning the property your kids live in has its perks, but don’t forget to consider land tax, capital gains tax, and all those fun adulting things. After all, you want to make sure the financial benefits are flowing both ways!

Benefits & challenges

The Bank of Mum and Dad has plenty of perks—helping the kids, boosting financial stability, and earning those coveted ‘favourite parent’ points. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. There are challenges, too, like the potential impact on your retirement savings, navigating complex family dynamics (who knew giving could be so tricky?), and the inevitable tax implications.

Conclusion

In Australia, the Bank of Mum and Dad has become a crucial player in helping the younger generation navigate financial challenges. By carefully structuring and documenting support, you can help your children achieve their goals while keeping family harmony intact. And as the economic landscape continues to shift, you can bet the role of this unique “bank” will only grow more significant. So, whether you’re loaning for a house or helping with school fees, remember—you’re not just a parent; you’re the CEO of the most important bank your kids will ever know!

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It’s not that the kitchen can’t keep cooking. It’s that we didn’t expect this many people, eating this much, this fast.

A Growing Appetite We’re Underestimating

The International Monetary Fund reckons that global data‑centre power demand could triple by 2030, reaching levels similar to what the whole of India uses today. In the U.S., McKinsey says data centres could chew through 11–12% of all electricity by the end of the decade.

Australia’s no different.

Some estimates say data centres could be taking up to 15% of our national electricity by 2030 if we go full steam ahead on sovereign AI ambitions without upgrading the grid.

Subsidies, Retirements = A Pinch for Households

Some politicians are pulling back renewable subsidies. In theory, that’s just letting the market stand on its own two feet. In practice, if we’re also retiring coal and gas baseload plants at the same time, it’s a bit like taking the training wheels off your bike while also removing the tyres.

Extra AI‑driven demand is already pushing electricity bills higher.

In the U.S., Ohio households living near new data‑centre clusters are paying an extra $20–$27 a month. In some U.S. power markets, capacity prices have spiked over 800%.

Australia’s risk is the same: if grid investment can’t keep up, households will pay more, businesses will grumble, and the “planned” outages won’t feel very planned.

It’s Not Just About AI

AI is just the latest power‑hungry guest at the table.

Add electric vehicles, electrified industry, and the ongoing retirement of old power plants, and you’ve got a recipe for a grid that’s constantly running to stand still.

Pulling renewable subsidies isn’t necessarily the villain here, it just exposes the true cost of generating reliable electricity. Without proper planning, the bill lands in the lap of the consumer.

What Needs to Happen

• Don’t retire baseload without a replacement plan. It’s common sense, but somehow still worth saying.
• Make big power users (like data centres) co‑invest in the generation and transmission they’ll need. Not just “plug in and walk away.”
• Speed up grid connection approvals. Waiting years for new transmission is like booking your hairdresser for 2028.
• Match data‑centre builds with local generation. Solar next door is better than diesel down the road.

How We’re Thinking About It from an Investment Perspective

From our seat, this isn’t just an energy‑planning issue, it’s an investment one. If you believe the forecasts (and we do and think they are actually too conservative), then power demand is going one way: up.

That has implications across our Stellan Capital 5‑D Thematics:

• Digitisation – AI and cloud growth means more data centres, more chips, more networking. The companies building and running these facilities — and the infrastructure that feeds them — are in long‑term growth mode.
• Decarbonisation – The clean‑energy build‑out isn’t optional; it’s necessary just to keep the lights on. That includes renewables, grid‑scale storage, and yes, nuclear in some markets.
• Demographics – An ageing population will demand more stable, reliable power (especially in healthcare and aged care infrastructure). That puts a premium on secure energy supply.
• Decoupling – Nations will increasingly want sovereign energy and computing capacity. This favours local manufacturing of power hardware, batteries, and high‑performance computing gear.
• Defense – Energy security is national security. Expect more policy support for domestic energy production and transmission resilience.

In short, we’re looking at:

• Grid infrastructure and transmission companies – The “roads” of the power system.
• Utility‑scale renewable developers and storage providers – Solar, wind, batteries.
• Select commodity plays – Copper, lithium, uranium, the building blocks of the energy transition.
• Specialised technology providers – From power‑efficient chips to cooling systems for data centres.

This Topic is on Fire and AI is just the accelerant

We see this as a decade‑long tailwind, not a one‑year trade. The underlying energy‑demand trend is bigger, broader, and more durable.

If you have any questions as to how this relates to your portfolio with us, please contact us to discuss.

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David Leon joined ausbiz to discuss the market rally and highlight why inflation remains a key risk for investor portfolios. While markets have recovered strongly, he notes that several underlying pressures have not disappeared, including rising fertiliser costs, renewed food inflation, rapidly shifting inflation expectations and the potential flow-on impact to housing. These factors could make inflation more persistent than markets expect and may limit how much support investors can rely on from future rate cuts.

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David Leon joined ausbiz to discuss the link between oil, gold and the broader macro picture. The conversation focused on the sharp move in Brent crude following rising Middle East tensions, how energy shocks can feed through to inflation, and why investors need to think carefully about portfolio positioning during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. David also touched on gold’s continued strength and its role as a defensive asset, particularly when markets are balancing elevated equity valuations, inflation risk and unpredictable global events.

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